The crisis in Venezuela escalated significantly this week, with increased foreign military movements near its territorial waters and a marked breakdown in regional diplomatic support. President-elect Edmundo González, backed by opposition leader María Corina Machado, is emerging as the next president amid uncertainty, while Nicolás Maduro appears increasingly isolated.
A significant change was observed on Wednesday in the strategic map of the Caribbean. Until then, movements had only been reported in areas near Miami and Curaçao. However, in recent hours, new naval units began to position themselves in the region. All of the vessels, according to reports, will converge on a point near Venezuelan territorial waters, signaling an unprecedented level of international pressure.
In addition to the ships, two F-35 squadrons were strategically deployed. One is stationed in Bonaire and the other in Puerto Rico. This type of aircraft is used in landing operations and high-impact air cover. International sources confirm that the intervention structure is already ready for activation.
According to reports from Reuters, an agency renowned for its rigor in international security matters, the six ships and two submarines are scheduled to formally enter Venezuelan waters next Sunday. The two combat air formations are also expected to become operational in the same timeframe.
Faced with this situation, doubts are growing: Is this a pressure maneuver to force an orderly political transition or a planned operation to remove the Chavista leadership? An official response has yet to be provided. The truth is that the strategic targets include not only Maduro, but also Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López. Between the three, the reward for their capture far exceeds that offered at the time for Osama Bin Laden.
The regime's fragility is also evident behind closed doors. Various reports indicate that Nicolás Maduro avoids sleeping two nights in a row in the same residence. He moves constantly, changing houses and rooms with the support of Cuban intelligence, which considers the Miraflores Palace a vulnerable military target in the event of a precision strike launched from the sea.
At the same time, a substantial loss of regional support has been confirmed. Both Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro have hardened their stance toward the Maduro government. In the words of Celso Amorim, Lula's chief international advisor, "Brazil never recognized Maduro as a legitimate leader, since the necessary documents were never presented."
In Colombia, the distancing is also overwhelming. Petro denounced the presence of former combatants protected by Chavismo in his territory, stating that the armed groups operating in his country "do not answer to his government, but to that of Caracas." These statements were interpreted as an implicit endorsement of international intervention.
The diplomatic moves by Lula and Petro mark a drastic shift in the region's foreign policy. Brazil and Colombia were the two main neighbors that maintained open channels with Venezuela, but today they explicitly state that they do not recognize the legitimacy of the current regime.
For its part, the international community is closely following the historical parallels. The case of Manuel Noriega, the former Panamanian dictator overthrown in 1989 by US forces, appears to be a direct precedent. At the time, Operation Just Cause was presented with a similar narrative: political pressure, accusations of drug trafficking, and a final capture with a trial on US soil.
Meanwhile, the Venezuelan opposition is strengthening its position. Edmundo González was elected president by a wide margin, even in districts that had historically been strongholds of Chavismo. María Corina Machado, one of the opposition's most influential figures, led the electoral strategy that led to González's victory. Both are preparing a transition that, however, depends on the geopolitical and military outcome of the coming hours.
The Venezuelan Armed Forces, once the backbone of Chavismo, are now showing signs of decay. The so-called "Cupula de los Soles" (Dome of the Suns)—a name popularized by the rank insignia on the generals' uniforms—is believed to be the last remaining core of the regime. Unofficial reports claim that several high-ranking officers have already requested guarantees to leave the country for Cuba, the main destination for wealthy Chavista exiles.
Finally, rumors are growing about possible escape routes for the leadership. A plane from the state-owned airline Viaza made an irregular flight this week: it departed from Caracas, made several loops over Cuba, and returned without official explanation. There is speculation that it could be an evacuation rehearsal or a logistical test for future transfers.
In this context, Venezuela's fate could be decided in a matter of days. The combination of military pressure, diplomatic isolation, and internal weakness creates a critical scenario. Uncertainty dominates the landscape, while the Venezuelan people hope for a bloodless resolution to the conflict.
