The US troop presence in Iraq will be significantly reduced in the coming months, according to official sources at the Pentagon and the US Central Command (CENTCOM). The decision, formally announced in Baghdad, responds to the notable progress and growing capacity of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to autonomously contain and neutralize the remaining threat from the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group.
This strategic realignment marks a new chapter in security cooperation between Washington and Baghdad, nearly two decades after the 2003 invasion. The announcement specifies a reduction in the US military contingent from approximately 5,200 to 3,000 troops. This move does not represent a complete withdrawal, but rather a transition from a direct combat role to one focused exclusively on advising, assisting, and supporting local forces.
General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., CENTCOM commander, emphasized that this measure is based on confidence in the ISF's ability to protect the sovereignty of his country. "This decision is a reflection of our continued commitment to the Iraqi people and their government, and is based on the success we have achieved together in the campaign to defeat the Islamic State's territorial caliphate," he said in a statement.
The reduction in military presence is the result of months of negotiations within the framework of the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue. This bilateral forum has been key in redefining the relationship between the two countries, encompassing not only security but also economic, political, and cultural cooperation. The Iraqi government has repeatedly expressed its desire for international coalition forces to assume a non-combat role, fully respecting national sovereignty.
A Change of Mission: From Combat to Advice
The main operational change resulting from this reduction is the consolidation of the US-led international coalition's mission under Operation Inherent Resolve. The remaining troops will focus on high-value strategic tasks that Iraqi forces are still developing. This includes high-level intelligence support, aerial surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as logistical planning for complex operations against ISIL sleeper cells.
Military sources have detailed that the US personnel remaining in the country will be concentrated at a smaller number of bases, working closely with their Iraqi counterparts. The goal is to strengthen Iraq's defense institutions so they can confront any resurgence of terrorism without relying on the direct intervention of foreign forces. This "advise and assist" model has already proven effective in the training of elite units such as Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), widely recognized for its effectiveness on the battlefield.
This approach also responds to the evolving threat. The Islamic State, although territorially defeated in 2017 in Iraq, has not been completely eradicated. The group has mutated, becoming a low-profile insurgency operating primarily in rural and desert areas, carrying out sporadic attacks against military and civilian targets. The new strategy seeks to equip the ISF with the necessary tools to sustainably combat this asymmetric threat.
Political Context and National Sovereignty
The decision to reduce troops also has an important political component. The presence of foreign forces has been a sensitive and contentious issue in Iraqi politics. Following the drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020, the Iraqi Parliament passed a non-binding resolution calling for the expulsion of all foreign troops. Although the resolution was not immediately implemented, it increased pressure on the government to renegotiate the terms of the coalition's presence.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has made asserting national sovereignty a cornerstone of his administration. The US troop reduction is seen as a diplomatic victory for his administration, as it demonstrates his ability to manage the relationship with Washington in a way that respects domestic demands without sacrificing security cooperation, which remains vital.
This realignment allows both governments to present a picture of success. For the United States, it validates the investment made in training Iraqi forces and fulfills the promise to reduce military deployments abroad. For Iraq, it represents a crucial step toward security self-sufficiency and a strengthening of its sovereignty.
The Capacity of the Iraqi Security Forces
The central argument for reducing the military presence is the operational maturity achieved by the Iraqi Security Forces. Since the near-disintegration of several of its divisions in the face of the advance of ISIS in 2014, the ISF has undergone a profound restructuring and modernization with the support of the coalition. Today, it demonstrates significantly improved capabilities in several key areas:
- Intelligence and Analysis: Iraqi intelligence agencies are increasingly capable of collecting, analyzing, and acting on information to dismantle terrorist networks.
- Special Operations: Units like the CTS can plan and execute complex raids and counterterrorism missions with minimal external oversight.
- Coordination and Command: The ability to coordinate operations between different branches of the armed forces, including the army, federal police, and integrated militias, has improved substantially.
- Logistical Sustainment: Although still a challenge, Iraqi military logistics has advanced in its ability to supply and sustain its troops during prolonged operations.
Despite these advances, coalition military leaders caution that the fight is not over. The withdrawal of direct combat capabilities does not mean the end of support. Air superiority, access to global intelligence, and experience in combating insurgent networks are assets the coalition will continue to provide to ensure that the gains made in the fight against the Islamic State are irreversible and lasting.
In conclusion, the US troop reduction in Iraq is a milestone that reflects a new strategic reality. It symbolizes a transition toward a more balanced partnership, based on recognition of Iraq's capabilities and a shared commitment to ensuring the definitive defeat of terrorism in the region, consolidating Iraq's long-term stability and sovereignty.
