Dollar rise: How the real economy begins to feel the blow
The rise of the dollar in Argentina is no longer a phenomenon exclusive to the financial market. In recent weeks, the dizzying rise in various exchange rates—with the blue dollar surpassing $1,000—has seeped into business decisions, daily consumption, and social expectations. The real economy has begun to reflect the tensions that have been concentrated in the exchange rate for months, with visible effects: marked-up prices, paralyzed sales, halted investments, and a growing sense of uncertainty.
In this context, businesses, households, and the State itself are forced to make decisions in a scenario that changes daily, without clear signals from the political front or sufficient tools from the economic front. The silent and progressive devaluation coexists with accelerating inflation and growing distrust.
How the rise of the dollar impacts daily life
One of the most immediate effects of the dollar's rise is the loss of reference price. Retailers in various sectors—technology, medical supplies, imported food, construction materials—are modifying their lists several times a week. In some cases, they are simply deciding not to sell until they have greater certainty about replacement costs.
This situation affects both consumers and retailers. Families are forced to prioritize spending, suspend major purchases, or purchase early in the face of potential price increases. Businesses, on the other hand, are dealing with suppliers who don't deliver or who quote prices in dollars, and with shrinking margins in the face of an increasingly tight market.
Companies that are halted and SMEs on alert
For the productive sector, the rise of the dollar means more than a price distortion: it poses a direct threat to operational continuity. Many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with less financing capacity and direct exposure to the dollar for their inputs, are forced to slow production, adjust shifts, or suspend sales altogether.
Adding to this situation is the impossibility of planning. In a context where costs fluctuate daily and demand is declining, making medium-term decisions becomes practically impossible. The risk of a new currency crisis or a sharp adjustment after the elections paralyzes any future projections.
The Central Bank and the limits of its intervention
The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) is facing this situation with increasingly limited tools. The crawling peg strategy—a controlled and gradual devaluation—is losing effectiveness in the face of a market betting on an exchange rate closer to the real exchange rate. Net reserves, according to private estimates, are at minimal levels, limiting its intervention capacity.
Furthermore, the lack of political consensus and institutional weakness generate distrust. The financial system perceives that there is no clear anchor: neither monetary, nor fiscal, nor political. And this exacerbates volatility.
Risks of stagflation and social tension
Economists warn that the country is on the cusp of a classic stagflationary scenario: high inflation, stagnant economic activity, and growing social tension. The rise of the dollar increases pressure on prices and affects purchasing power, while formal employment is beginning to show signs of slowing, especially in sectors such as commerce, industry, and construction.
Uncertainty ahead of the elections, with disparate proposals such as dollarization or the elimination of the Central Bank, is fueling anxiety. The economy is going into defensive mode, with decisions frozen, investments postponed, and consumption declining.
How to stop the deterioration?
Specialists agree that without a credible economic plan, with political support and clear market signals, it will be difficult to contain the situation. Controlling the dollar exchange rate is not enough: it is necessary to rebuild confidence, organize macroeconomic variables, and generate predictability.
Otherwise, the impact felt today on shelves and in stores could deepen and spread. The rise of the dollar is just the most visible symptom of a deeper malaise affecting the entire Argentine economy.
