Fiscal deficit and the official strategy to consolidate the accounts

Minister Gabriel Oddone presented the budget proposal to the Committee and defended the goal of reducing the central government's fiscal deficit to 2.6% by the end of the administration. The Executive estimates the current deficit at 4.1% and announced that it will implement two types of tax changes: one to adapt the framework to global trends and another to correct technical inconsistencies. The presentation sparked parliamentary debate and highlighted tensions between fiscal ambition and campaign promises.

Oddone explained that the adoption of the Global Minimum Tax will be applicable to fiscal year 2025 and that actual revenue will be reflected with delays, initially starting in 2027. In his statement, he acknowledged that the projection of convergence toward primary balance is gradual and dependent on economic developments. The official interpretation acknowledges that some programmatic aspirations were left out due to fiscal limits and that spending remains stable in terms of GDP.

Results and Budget: How the deficit variation is explained

The Executive Branch maintains that tax pressure grew more than expected, and that, as a result, the deficit stands at 4.1% instead of the 2.8–3% initially projected. Oddone admitted that during the campaign, he had promised that tax pressure would not increase; he acknowledged this gap and attributed it to the need to address financial emergencies. The combination of technical measures and adaptations to international regulations seeks to improve revenue collection without disrupting spending management.

At the same time, the Executive Branch made it clear that part of the adjustment is a response to specific corrections and not radical structural changes in the tax burden. To understand the true scope, it will be necessary to monitor the budget execution and the quarterly reports published by the economic team.

Fiscal Policy and Tax Measures: What Changes and When Will It Be Seen?

The official package combines measures aligned with international practices and technical adjustments to close loopholes. The incorporation of the global minimum tax illustrates the type of reform that, according to the government, modernizes the tax framework and contributes to revenue in the medium term. The implementation deadlines and the revenue schedule mean that the fiscal effects will not be immediate, so the forecast of reaching 2.6% requires patience and monitoring.

Analysts and political actors will focus on implementation: how exemptions are defined, what control mechanisms are available, and to what extent the measures could affect economic activity. The undersecretary noted that some opposition proposals were financially unviable, which complicates the technical debate.

Bank secrecy and the DGI: the most controversial measure

One of the measures that generated the greatest resistance is the relaxation of bank secrecy, allowing the DGI to access information without prior judicial authorization. Oddone defended the initiative as a surrender of sovereignty in pursuit of greater effectiveness against complex tax practices; he admitted it is controversial but affirmed the cost-benefit ratio is favorable. Critics warn of privacy risks and possible misuse of data, while the government appeals for improved oversight and collection capacity.

The balance between legal certainty and tax collection efficiency will shape the parliamentary and media debate in the coming weeks.

Impact on the economy and the public agenda

The prioritization of fiscal consolidation explains why certain programmatic policies were left out of the project or postponed. The official approach seeks to legitimize macroeconomic stability rather than expand spending, but this may clash with social demands and public investment needs. The challenge will be to combine fiscal discipline with clear signals so as not to discourage private investment.

The evolution of revenue collection and budget execution will be key indicators for measuring the credibility of the strategy.

Political outlook and calendar

The Budget will continue its progress in committee and then go to the floor for final discussion; during this process, pressure from political parties and social actors to modify specific items is expected. The Executive Branch's goal of a 2.6% deficit is its guiding principle, but achieving it will depend on both economic variables and the effectiveness of the implementation of tax and control measures. Continued publication of official reports and independent analyses will be essential to validate the projections.