Dollar exchange rate in Uruguay: evolution, context, and projections for 2025

The dollar exchange rate in Uruguay closed this Monday at $39.80, marking a slight 0.21% drop from the previous close of $39.89. This movement, although subtle, reflects a trend of lower volatility in the local exchange market, in an economic context that shows signs of recovery and stability.

Over the past week, the US currency has gained 0.49%. However, looking at the year-over-year trend, the dollar is still down 3.36%, indicating that the Uruguayan peso has gained ground against the US currency over the past twelve months.

Lower volatility and signs of calm

The dollar's performance today reversed the previous day's trend, when it had risen 0.48%. This lack of continuity in daily movements suggests a period of relative calm in the foreign exchange market. In fact, weekly volatility was considerably lower than that recorded last year, reinforcing the perception of stability.

This scenario could be favorable for importers, companies with dollar commitments, and consumers in general, as it reduces uncertainty about prices and contracts in foreign currency.

Economic recovery and investment opportunities

After a challenging 2023, Uruguay embarked on a process of economic recovery in 2024, which consolidated throughout the year. Growth is supported by pillars such as macroeconomic stability, tax incentives, and an infrastructure that favors the establishment of regional companies, especially Argentine ones.

Montevideo and Canelones are positioned as strategic areas for logistics development. According to the consulting firm CBRE, the sector is dominated by a small group of developers, primarily owners of industrial parks. This concentration creates an organized environment, with high occupancy and potential for expansion in key areas.

Furthermore, the country has strengthened its image as a reliable destination for foreign investment, thanks to its stable legal framework, open trade, and predictable policies.

History and evolution of the Uruguayan peso

The Uruguayan peso officially began circulating in 1993, replacing the old pesos after a period of high inflation. Authorization to issue the new banknotes was granted to the Central Bank in October 1991, and the new currency entered circulation in March 1993, with a value of 1,000 to 1 against the old pesos.

During the 1990s, a floating band system was implemented to control the exchange rate . In 2002, under President Jorge Batlle, Uruguay faced a financial crisis that led to the adoption of the independent floating rate regime, which remains in place today.

Social strengths and structural challenges

Uruguay stands out in Latin America for its high per capita income and low levels of poverty and inequality. With more than 60% of its population living in the middle class, the country faces challenges such as improving its competitiveness, increasing female participation in the economy, and transforming the education system to sustain long-term growth.

In this context, the dollar's exchange rate in Uruguay becomes a key indicator for assessing the country's financial health and projecting future scenarios. Its stability impacts not only foreign trade but also investor confidence and public policy planning.

Outlook for the dollar in Uruguay towards 2025

Looking ahead to next year, economic analysts project that the dollar's exchange rate in Uruguay could remain relatively stable, provided the current fiscal balance is maintained and significant external shocks do not occur. Factors such as international commodity prices, U.S. monetary policy , and the evolution of local inflation will determine the direction of the exchange rate.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the Uruguayan peso against the dollar could continue if foreign investment inflows consolidate and the trade surplus is maintained. In this regard, sectors such as agricultural exports, technology, and logistics play a key role in generating foreign currency and maintaining exchange rate stability.

On the other hand, the Central Bank of Uruguay has reiterated its commitment to a prudent monetary policy, aimed at preserving purchasing power and avoiding abrupt fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. This stance has been welcomed by financial stakeholders, who value predictability as a strategic asset in times of global uncertainty.