Tropical cyclone and extreme heat: The weather Mexico expects this week

This Monday at noon, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) confirmed the formation of a low-pressure zone over the Atlantic Ocean with a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

If it develops, this system would be named Fernand and would join the cyclonic activity already experienced by Hurricane Erin , located off the coast of the Bahamas and Cuba.

Current location of low pressure in the Atlantic

The system is located in the central Atlantic, off the coasts of Colombia and Panama , and is moving west and west-northwest at a speed of 32 km/h .

For now, it is generating scattered showers and disorganized thunderstorms , but forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicate that it could intensify and become a tropical depression towards the end of the week .

Hurricane Erin and the new system in the Caribbean

While the evolution of this low pressure is being monitored, Hurricane Erin continues to move off the Bahamas and Cuba, with the potential to disrupt weather conditions in the Caribbean region.

The coincidence of both phenomena reinforces the need for continued monitoring, as cyclone trajectories in the Atlantic can vary depending on their interaction with high and low pressure systems in the atmosphere.

Possible trajectory: Caribbean and Mexico under observation

Prediction models suggest that low pressure could approach the coasts of the Dominican Republic, Cuba and, eventually, Quintana Roo , on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Although it is still too early to determine a definitive path, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) emphasized that monitoring will continue and that an impact on Mexico if the system develops into a tropical cyclone.

Weather in Mexico this Tuesday: rain and extreme heat

Beyond the Atlantic phenomenon, the SMN forecast anticipates extreme weather conditions in Mexico during the week, combining heavy rains and very high temperatures .

States with heavy rains:

• Western Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Very heavy rains:

• Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Guerrero, Veracruz, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.

Heavy rain:

• Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Durango, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, State of Mexico, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco and Campeche.

Showers and intervals of rain:

• Baja California Sur, San Luis Potosí, Tlaxcala and Mexico City.

Isolated showers:

• Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro and Hidalgo.

These showers will be accompanied by electrical activity, strong gusts of wind, and possible hail.

Extreme heat in the north and coast of Mexico

At the same time, much of the territory will face extreme temperatures :

• Over 45°C : Baja California, Sonora and Sinaloa.

• Between 40 and 45 °C : Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas.

• Between 35 and 40 °C : Baja California Sur, Durango, Nayarit, Jalisco, Guerrero, Oaxaca, San Luis Potosí, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.

• Between 30 and 35 °C : Zacatecas, Colima, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Morelos and Chiapas.

In contrast, the mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Durango, the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Puebla will record minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 °C , demonstrating the country's wide climatic variability.

Waves and dust storms

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) also warned that waves will reach between 1 and 2 meters in height coasts of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas .

in Baja California and Baja California Sur, which could reduce visibility and complicate traffic on roads.

Preventive measures and recommendations

Given this scenario, meteorological authorities recommended:

• Stay informed through official communications from the SMN and the NHC .

• Avoid spreading rumors or unconfirmed information.

• Take precautions for heavy rains , which could cause urban flooding, landslides and river overflows .

• Do not expose yourself to the elements during thunderstorms.

• Take extreme care in high temperatures, staying hydrated and avoiding sun exposure during critical times.

Economic and social impact of tropical cyclones

In Mexico, hurricane season often brings with it impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and tourism , especially in coastal states. Early monitoring of systems like the potential Cyclone Fernand allows authorities to anticipate evacuation measures, reinforce shelters, and coordinate emergency plans .

Furthermore, the intense rainfall associated with these phenomena, although dangerous, also contributes to the recharging of aquifers and dams in a country where drought is a recurring problem.

Conclusion

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) is monitoring a low-pressure zone in the Atlantic that has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the coming days. Meanwhile, Mexico faces a week marked by heavy rains and extreme heat , amid complex weather conditions.

Attention is focused on whether this system evolves into Cyclone Fernand and what its path will be like in the Caribbean and Mexico.

👉 Do you think Mexico is prepared to face a potential tropical cyclone impact amid such extreme weather conditions?