MADRID, 19 (EUROPA PRESS)
A new study has revealed a stark and growing inequality in exposure to urban flooding worldwide, with developing countries facing much greater risks than their wealthier counterparts.
The study warns that this gap will widen, posing a serious threat to sustainable development and highlighting the urgent need for equitable climate adaptation strategies.
The analysis, published in Communications Earth & Environment, was conducted by researchers at the Institute of Applied Ecology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The researchers systematically assessed the impact of once-in-a-century river floods on cities around the world.
They found that between 2000 and 2020, global exposure to urban flooding—measured by built-up area, population, and economic activity at risk—increased substantially. East Asia was the most severely affected region, while Africa experienced the fastest growth in exposure.
Looking ahead, the study projects an alarming continued increase in these risks, especially in high-risk development models. The findings underscore a stark gap between the Global North (generally referring to the industrialized nations of North America and Europe) and the Global South (developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America).
By 2100, urban areas, populations, and economies exposed to flooding in developing countries are projected to be more than double—almost five times and more than double—those in the Global North, respectively. This inequality was found to be even more pronounced within developing regions themselves.
Unlike previous studies that focused on a single factor, such as land use or population, this analysis integrated three key metrics: built-up area, population, and economy, and considered the role of urban sprawl. It also examined how disparities might evolve under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), standard scenarios used to model future global development.
The findings provide clear scientific evidence for policymakers, emphasizing that without region-specific strategies, the triple threat of climate change, rapid urbanization, and socioeconomic inequality will put the world's most vulnerable populations at even greater risk. The researchers argued that the results should inform fairer and more effective flood management, climate adaptation, and urban planning worldwide.
