How Chile's voting intentions are shaping up six weeks before the first round
The latest Criteria poll places the Unidad por Chile candidate, Jeannette Jara, in first place in voting intentions with 29 percent, ahead of the Republican Party candidate, José Antonio Kast, who appears with 27 percent. The survey, published after a week of intense campaigning, shows a two-point increase for Jara and a slight drop for Kast of one point. Evelyn Matthei (UDI) appears in third place with 17 percent, while Johannes Kaiser and Franco Parisi are further behind with 9 and 7 percent respectively. Eight percent of those surveyed said they would vote blank or spoiled .
The poll also details the distribution of the remaining candidates: Harold Mayne-Nicholls has 2 percent, Marco Enríquez-Ominami 1 percent, and Eduardo Artés has no significant support. According to the study , the undecided and white voter segments could exert influence in key districts on election day. Overall, the trends show a close race in the first round, with sectoral variations based on age and region. The survey, picked up by local media, reflects the current picture of the electorate less than two months before November 16.
In runoff scenarios, projections show Kast leading Jara by 45 percent to 36 percent, according to the same poll. This result implies that, although Jara leads in voting intentions for the first round, the consolidation of support in a possible runoff would favor the right-wing candidate. Jara would fall 33 percent to 42 percent against Matthei, according to Criteria estimates. These differences show that the support of third-party candidates and turnout will be decisive in determining the final result.
Analysts consulted emphasize that Jara's increase in the weekly poll may be due to tactical movements by the electorate and specific campaign performances, but they warn that the polarization of the scenario keeps the race open. The focus in the coming days will be on alliances, debate performance, and territorial mobilization. The dynamic between convinced voters and those who have not yet decided on their candidate for the first round will also be key. Upcoming polls will determine whether Jara's lead consolidates or if the situation narrows again.
