Buenos Aires 2025 legislative elections: the tug-of-war in the provinces
This Sunday, the province of Buenos Aires will vote for legislators and councilors in an unprecedented schedule: 46 provincial deputies and 23 provincial senators will be renewed, and councilors will be elected in all 135 municipalities. The calendar divided the eight electoral sections: four will vote for senators and the other four for deputies; in 2027, the logic will be reversed.
The Buenos Aires Electoral Board reported that more than 14 million voters are eligible to vote, including 1,015,233 foreign residents, making the day a demographic and political test of fire. This is the first time in provincial history that the legislative elections are separated from the national elections, and the format will be a party-based ballot, the classic "sábana" (slate of voting), which imposes different dynamics than the single ballot.
Sábana ticket and the first Buenos Aires split
The splitting of the ballots changed the landscape: voting with a single ballot strengthens party identity and forces the forces to implement different strategies in each municipality. The maneuver also introduces uncertainty into the mobilization: would the same citizens vote if the election were national? That question is at the heart of the campaign.
Freedom Advances and the “Kirchnerism or Freedom” Strategy
The La Libertad Avanza campaign was presented early on as a binary polarization: "Kirchnerism or freedom," its posters and rallies proclaim, with Javier Milei's image deliberately sought to nationalize the election. The goal is to turn the result into a direct precursor to the national legislative elections on October 26.
Abstention: the concern that unites the government and the opposition
The specter of low turnout worries everyone. In provinces that already voted this year, turnout ranged between 46% and 65%, well below the historical average; this figure forces campaigns to prioritize operations and door-to-door campaigns in the metropolitan area and in districts where the vote is more volatile.
Axel Kicillof and the commitment to Peronist territoriality
Peronism in Buenos Aires province played on territoriality: mayors and local structures acted as the backbone for supporting candidates. Axel Kicillof, who performed strongly in the last provincial election, sought to differentiate himself from the national government with closures in several sections and appealed to the "State presence" approach in contrast to the libertarian message.
The day's focus will be on the metropolitan area, where logistics and mobilization can decide the outcome. At the same time, emerging groups are trying to capture the third of voters that neither the LLA nor Peronism can fully attract; these are local forces and coalitions that, although small, could divide the remaining third.
Sunday night promises to be busy: the first counts are expected after 9 p.m., and attention will be focused on the trend in turnout rather than small percentage variations. The key is not just who wins or loses, but how many people turned out to vote.
In short, these 2025 Buenos Aires legislative elections are not just a provincial election: they function as a national thermometer, a laboratory for tactics, and a dress rehearsal for October. That's why the campaign wasn't just about candidacies, but about mobilization, ballots, and what version of the political map will remain as a precedent.
